AG citeert een rapport van PWC waarin een rooskleurig beeld van de online advertentiemarkt wordt gegeven, althans als we terugkijken :
... De omzet van de online-advertentiemarkt in 2007 bedroeg meer dan 21 miljard dollar. Dat is een groei van 25 procent ten opzichte van 2006. Dat blijkt uit voorlopige cijfers van het Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB).
De winst kwam uit op 4,2 miljard dollar, terwijl er in 2006 nog een groei van 4,3 miljard dollar werd bereikt, wat ten opzichte van 2005 een groei was van 35 procent. Het meest winstgevend waren trefwoordadvertenties zoals Google en andere zoekmachines die gebruiken.
PricewaterhouseCoopers heeft ook een kwartaalenquête gehouden onder de 15 grootste online-advertentieverkopers. ...
Source: Omzet online-advertentiemarkt groeit
Ik kwam ook een ander artikel tegen deze week die met name de online advertentiemarkt en het effect op met name Google in het perspectief van het huidige economische klimaat in de VS plaatst :
... Google Very Exposed to US Recession--Expert
A digital-ad industry insider thinks Google is far more exposed to a US recession than the market realizes. The insider also thinks that the next two quarters will be "rough."
The insider is not a Google employee, but s/he has real-time insight into digital ad spending and is therefore not just talking out of his/her posterior. The insider's view is based on two key assumptions:
- A significant percentage of Google's customer base is exposed to economic weakness (logic below), and
- As consumers spend less, the ROI for many Google advertisers will drop--and this will cause them to spend less on Google (We concur with this view, which is still a minority view.)
The insider's analysis is sophisticated, so we will walk through it in detail. It also relies on significant estimation and extrapolation: The insider does not have inside knowledge of Google's numbers. We find the insider's logic compelling, however--more so than Google's strange explanation for the Q4 miss, which we still don't think makes sense.
A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF GOOGLE'S ADVERTISERS ARE EXPOSED TO WEAKNESS
The insider estimates that Google's customer base can be roughly segmented as follows:
- Approximately 1.2 million total AdWords customers.
- Approx. 800,000 active AdWords customers (the rest inactive because they have stopped using Google or because of seasonality).
- Approx. 60% of AdWords revenue comes from customers who spend $200,000 or less per month.
- Approx. 50% of AdWords customers spend $50,000 or less per month (Small and Medium-sized businesses).
- Approx. 20% spend $10,000 or less per month (Small businesses).
The primary economic exposure, the insider believes, is in the 50% of customers that spend $50,000 or less per month. We don't know what percentage of Google's revenue these customers generate, but we would estimate a third or more. If customers who account or a third of Google's revenue decrease their spending by a third, Google's revenue growth would slow sharply. ...
Source: Media & Entertainment News
